The market analysis below pertains exclusively to Mack Bayou Road, Goldsby Road, W. Hewett Road, E. Hewett Road, Don Bishop Road, and Mussett Bayou Road (“Our Neighborhood”). I like this simple nickname of “Our Neighborhood”, for my home here is so dear to me.
With a total of 2,779 houses as of early 2023, the Northwest Santa Rosa Beach market has morphed, over the past ten years, from unknown to most desirable. Now sought for its quaint atmosphere in the midst of some of the most appealing (and overcrowded) features of NW Florida, our neighborhood has become somewhat of a little miracle. It has gained value as the relative solitude of 30A and Destin have vanished.
This reality, compounded by the influx of new residents from other states, has fueled the last decade’s jump in prices expressed in this article. Even more encouraging, this unique character should justify a continued increase in local values when compared with other nearby areas.
Let’s look at some of the market data available through the Multiple Listing Service:
- Since 2012, the number of houses selling each year has remained strikingly stable, between 200 and 262.
- The average house sales prices have increased from almost $300,000 in 2012 to over $900,000 in 2022.
What can we learn from these numbers?
- The market is stable with less than 10% of the total number of houses selling each year. This is a proof of a non-speculative, stable market.
- Average prices have more than tripled in ten years – they increased by 237% between 2014 and 2022 to be exact. This is a much faster increase than inflation would warrant during the same period. Since 2012, the compounded inflation rate has only been 29%!
What about the future?
- It is likely that the fortunes of “Our Neighborhood” will follow those of 30-A and Destin. These two flashier areas seem poised to keep catering to a more ostentatious market. Many of these buyers paid cash – a solid guarantee of stability for Destin and 30-A… and consequently for “Our Neighborhood” as well.
- We know that the subtlety and privacy of “Our Neighborhood” are its most valued assets. This should become even more obvious with time, leading to a continued strength in our valuations. although probably not at the rates of increase previously experienced. Yet, sustained high values and stability should continue being the hallmark of Our Neighborhood’s very unique lifestyle.
In conclusion, the absence of tourist amenities IS our foremost amenity!
