In order to best understand today’s market, we have gathered in one graph the median sales prices of single-family homes in the western area of Lynn Haven since 2001 (over the past 25 years) – blue line.
In order to compare apple-to-apple, we have taken these numbers and adjusted them for inflation. This way, all values are expressed in ‘2026 dollars’ – solid red line.
When looking at the solid red line (adjusted values comparing all prices in today’s dollars), we see the seventeen-year real estate cycle starting with the peak of 2005 and ending with the peak of 2022. We can learn a lot from the duration and amplitude of our current real estate cycle from the curve linking both peaks:
- We are now in an adjustment phase (the soft way to say a downwards trend). This downwards trend is likely to last until 2028/2030.
- The difference in value between peak and trough is about 38%; in other words, going from a peak value of 100 to a trough value of 62. We now are at a value of 84.
- We seem to now be roughly half-way through the value adjustment, with values being 16% lower than the 2022 peak… and a likelihood of a further decrease between 20% and 25% from where we now are. This would land us to a ‘bottom’ between 68 and 62.
- We are now (end 2026) at a ‘fair value’ of real estate – fair value being defined as half-way between the two extremes.
From the data-driven conclusions, we could assume that, as a potential seller, your options are:
- Keep your house until the market comes back. Coming back to today’s values may take another eight years; a profit over today’s values may require waiting ten to fifteen years.
- Sell now at a reasonable price. Reasonable means being priced just ahead of the (downwards) curve; this means be reasonable and listen to the advice of your real estate professional. Time is working against you. If your property is not under contract within a month, it means that you are overpriced.
If history repeats itself, “your property is worth more today than it will be tomorrow”, as simple a quote as that is… It may resonate with you in a powerful way, possibly striking more fear to get moving on it. Yet, our obligation, as professionals of the northwest Florida market since 1962, is to deliver what we truly believe – unfiltered. Only with raw knowledge of the situation will you be able to make the timely right decision!
