Riding the Wave: How Pandemic Shifts Reshaped the Real Estate Market’s Ebb and Flow

Derik Smith & Olivier Ducimetiere-Monod

We will look at the history of two sets of data from the first quarter of 2019 (Q1-2019) until now for Crestview, Florida. The first set is the number of monthly sales, shown in yellow in the graph below. The second set is the average number of days the property listed has been on the market in any given month; expressed differently, the average time between the listing becoming public and the time it went under contract to be sold. This second set of data is shown in blue on the graph.

Normal times – Q1-2019 until Q4-2019. Why do we call these times “normal?” We could all agree that, since Covid started in January 2020, the markets (and more) have seemed a bit disjointed. Consequently, we can look at the pre-Covid era as being the ‘normal times.’ In those normal days, properties remained listed for a very long time, between 150 and 250 days. The number of transactions (sales) was relatively consistent and strong.

Riding the Wave- How Pandemic Shifts Reshaped the Real Estate Market's Ebb and Flow - graph

Covid early days – Q1-2020 until Q3-2020. The average number of days on the market dropped drastically while the number of sales went up. This new situation was driven by the work-from-home options now offered on the job market.

Covid’s maturity – Q4-2020 until Q1-2022. The number of sales stabilized but at a lower rate, and the number of days on the market crept down further.

Riding the Wave- How Pandemic Shifts Reshaped the Real Estate Market's Ebb and Flow - table

A long winter – Q2-2022 until Q4-2023. The number of sales consistently and slowly diminished while the days-on-the-market (DOM) went up sky-high. These were the days of higher interest rates. High interest rates drove many sellers not to sell, because any new home they would purchase would carry higher interest rates. High interest rates also drove many buyers to wait-and-see for the same reason: too expensive mortgage payments.

An early spring – December 2023 until now. Although it is too early to see if the new trend that began in December will hold for the long run, it appears that pinned up demand combined with interest rates having rested lower than the imaginary line of 6%, have both contributed to a return of the market. This translates into more sales and fewer days on the market.

In conclusion, the number of sales in Crestview, Florida, appears to be extremely consistent over the years, with the expected number of sales oscillating between 20 and 30 per month; the outliers of 10 sales (very low) and 45 sales (very high) somewhat mask the regularity of the market. The variations on the days-on-the-market (DOM) are, however, huge, from 45 to 240. What does this tell us? First and foremost, that our community (Crestview, Florida) is very stable, fed by military relocations. This is wonderful news to sellers who seldom feel ‘stuck’ with a property that does not sell. Pick the right agent, and your property will sell! This also tells us that the supply, measured in days-on-the-market data, is driven primarily by the number of sellers willing to sell – while the demand remains constant. In times of abundant supply, your pricing must be competitive to sell fast. In times of limited supply, as has been the case recently, sellers have a little more leeway.

For the latest on real estate in Crestview, Florida, visit Derik’s YouTube channel.

Derik Smith

Derik Smith, Realtor

Military Specialist Placing My Skills At Your Service Originally hailing from Indianapolis, Indiana, I spent a fulfilling 25 years in the US Army for my first career. This journey took me to various locations, both within and beyond the continental… Read more about Derik

Mobile/Text: (910) 988-9506
Office Number: (850) 653-3333 ext. 7048

Olivier Ducimetiere-Monod

Olivier Ducimetiere-Monod, Broker

Olivier Ducimetiere-Monod first visited the “Forgotten Coast” in 1981 and relocated permanently in 1988, joining Anchor Realty & Mortgage Co. as a real estate sales associate. He became Anchor Realty & Mortgage Co.’s broker and president in June 1990, overseeing three… Read more about Olivier

Mobile/Text: (850) 899-7999
Office Number: (850) 653-3333 ext. 7010

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